Συρρίκνωση στους περισσότερους δείκτες κατανάλωσης αναμένει η Business Monitor International

Τα δημοσιονομικά προβλήματα που αντιμετωπίζει η Ελλάδα ώθησαν την Business Monitor International να υποβαθμίσει τις προβλέψεις  για την κατανάλωση στον κλάδο των τροφίμων και ποτών , καθώς με τα μέτρα λιτότητας που έλαβε η Ελληνική Κυβέρνηση αναμένει συρρίκνωση στους περισσότερους δείκτες  για το 2010. 

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"Greek food forecasts cut in response to austerity package " 

The fiscal problems faced by Greece have prompted us to downgrade our forecasts for food and drink consumption, with austerity measures meaning we now expect a contraction in most headline indicators in 2010. The defensive nature of the industry means it is likely to be hit less hard than industries for which it is easier to withdraw discretionary spending. However, we are likely to see extensive trading down including a move towards private label options, and these trends could linger beyond the downturn with consumer caution likely to remain a prevalent feature of the sector.

Forecast Cut

Greece Food Consumption

NB. nominal growth rate. e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Statistical Service of Greece, BMI

Our previous view was based on the premise that a sharp contraction in GDP and private consumption during 2009 would be followed by a period of stagnation in 2010, followed by a reduced rate of future growth as Greek deficit reduction actions filtered through to consumer spending. However, with Greece having subsequently demonstrated an inability to contend with its significant debts, a more rapid and hard-hitting austerity package is now being overseen by the IMF and the European Central Bank following a financial support package.

This will have a more immediate impact on consumption and we are therefore forecasting a sharp drop in food and drink consumption during 2010, with total food consumption dropping by around 2% in real terms. Our long-term growth forecasts have also been trimmed. Between 2011 and 2014 Greek economic growth is expected to only average 1%, as the consequences of the current situation continue to reverberate. This is well below its regional peers and means that food consumption is expected to only grow by 5% (in nominal terms) in the five years from 2009 to 2014 (a figure that represents a decline in spending in real terms).

Weakness Across The Board

The ongoing trend towards cheaper options and a move towards private labels is likely to continue throughout the majority of our forecast period, accompanied by a reduction in the consumption of discretionary items such as soft drinks, confectionery and alcoholic drinks. We are therefore expecting weakness across almost every sector, as is being reflected in our updated forecasts. This operating environment is challenging for the country's grocery retail sector, though also, with demand for organised retailing now established, presents opportunities for discount operators, and both Aldi and Lidl are currently embarking on expansion programmes.

A Very Bleak Outlook

The risks to our outlook are currently weighted to the downside as we still believe that a default is the likely conclusion to the current fiscal problems. As the Japanese government has shown, a sovereign debt crisis can be delayed for many years, with fresh eurozone-IMF capital enabling Greece to delay the inevitable for now. However, Greece's liabilities are far in excess of its ability to pay and we believe the latest financial support pledges will only push back the recognition of liabilities to a future date. Ultimately we believe that the only options available to Greece are outright default, debt restructuring or a direct transfer of liabilities to eurozone states. The latter two options would still represent a technical default since the government would renege on the original terms of its bond contracts. However, either would clearly be preferable to a full-scale default, which could have very severe consequences indeed for every part of the Greek economy and the wider EU.

Πηγή : businessmonitor.com