Trade Deficit in U.S. Was Probably Little Changed in June (bloomberg.com)

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The trade deficit in the U.S. was probably little changed in June from the previous month as the global recovery cooled, economists said before a report today.

A projected $42.1 billion gap is the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and compares with a $42.3 billion shortfall in May.

Slower consumer spending and a less-pressing need to rebuild inventories will limit imports in coming months. At the same time, growth in emerging economies such as China may also cool, leading to fewer U.S. shipments abroad that have benefited companies such as Caterpillar Inc.

“It looks like both sides of the trade ledger are showing moderation,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “We’re past the peak momentum in trade flows after the Great Recession. We’re slowing to a more moderate pace.”

The Commerce Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington and estimates of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from $38 billion to $50 billion. The gap in May was the widest since November 2008.

Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday announced more steps to bolster an economy that’s starting to weaken. The Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement that “the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.”

Fed Reinvestment

The Fed said it will reinvest holdings of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the first attempt by the central bank since March 2009 to keep the economy from relapsing into recession.

Stocks pared losses after the announcement. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent yesterday and is down 7.9 percent since a recent peak on April 23.

The trade figures will help shape revisions to growth last quarter. Economists at UBS Securities in New York said the Commerce Department, in estimating second-quarter growth at a 2.4 percent annual rate, assumed a $3.2 billion widening of the trade deficit in June. Exports minus imports subtracted 2.8 percentage points from growth during the three months, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said July 30.

Business investment is one of the U.S. economy’s bright spots. Purchases of equipment and software in the second quarter rose at a 22 percent annual rate, the biggest gain since 1997, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 1.6 percent pace from April through June after a 1.9 percent rate in the previous three months...

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