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Europe's Volatility Curve Is Getting Kinky Ahead of French Vote

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Europe's Volatility Curve Is Getting Kinky Ahead of French Vote

France's election is making Europe's markets nervous. 

Traders, already wearied from the 2016 gyrations that followed Brexit, Donald Trump's victory and Italy's referendum, are pricing in a surge in volatility for April, when the first round of French voting will occur.  The scandal threatening to unhinge Republican candidate Francois Fillon's run for the presidency has raised concerns that Marine Le Pen, the populist who wants to withdraw France from the euro, may have less of a long shot at winning. 

The political storm has put a kink into the curve for volatility in Euro Stoxx futures, by sending the April contract to a record premium over the March one. Indeed,  price swings in April are expected to be more intense than for any  month through September, the longest-dated future available. The April security expires on the 19th of that month, four days before the first round of the French presidential election. 

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, a second round will be held on May 7.  The latest polling shows that Le Pen would probably make it through to the May round, only to lose to Emmanuel Macron, an independent candidate who faces criticism that he has failed to state his policies.

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Πηγή :bloomberg.com

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